The UK’s Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) is publishing updated Agri Market Outlooks for the beef and lamb, dairy and pork sectors, with the forecasts highlighting the continued influence of tightening livestock supplies. The updated analysis, which is designed to help levy payers understand the market factors likely to influence their businesses, points to constrained cattle and sheep supply underpinning market fundamentals over the coming years, despite ongoing pressure on consumer demand and wider economic uncertainty.

In dairy, GB milk production is forecast to decline by 2.2% during the 2026/27 milk season, with a further 1.1% decline anticipated during the first half of 2027/28. Low forage stocks, falling cow numbers, rising production costs and disease risks are expected to weigh on output, particularly if milk prices do not sufficiently strengthen to maintain production levels.

For the beef sector, UK production is forecast to drop to 896,000 tonnes in 2027, a decline of 0.8% compared with 2026. Increased carcase weights are expected to only partially offset lower cattle throughputs.

The latest sheep outlook also points to a continuation of tight supply conditions. UK sheep meat production is forecast to decline through 2027 as lower slaughter numbers and a contracting breeding flock reduce domestic supply. Production is expected to drop by 2.4% to 262,000 tonnes, with bluetongue remaining a downside risk to sheep production forecasts.

Alongside beef and lamb outlooks, AHDB has also updated its forecasts for the dairy and pork sectors, with production in both sectors expected to decline in 2027. Breeding herds in both sectors are declining due to farm profitability challenges, with the war in the Middle East and other factors contributing towards increasing costs of production.

Trade flows are expected to remain active. Beef imports are forecast to increase by 3% in 2026, with additional volumes weighted towards the second half of the year, while exports are also expected to rise by 3%, supported by a strong start to the year.

The pork and dairy outlooks are available from 14 October while the beef and lamb outlooks will be published on 16 October. You can find more information about AHDB’s Agri Market Outlooks at ahdb.org.uk/agri-market-outlook.