GERMANY – Cheesemakers are pressing ahead with ambitious expansion plans despite warnings that Germany’s cheese bubble could be about to burst.

Many processors committed themselves to aggressive growth strategies in the late 1990s as the BSE crisis turned consumers off beef and onto cheese. Per capita consumption of cheese in Germany rose from 17.2kg in 1990 to 22kg last year.

But some sources are warning that cheese consumption in Germany may actually have fallen during the first quarter of 2002, although none has come up with concrete figures so far. The German milk industry association Milchindustrieverband contends that a “stabilising of the market” would be a fairer evaluation.

However, pricing and statistics agency ZMP has warned that more available milk compared with this time last year means processors’ returns from cheese will be under increasing pressure as the summer wears on.

Continuing with expansion in this climate is Germany’s largest processor, Nordmilch, which will this month complete a new 14.5 million euro cheese plant at Waren in the eastern German state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. This should boost the amount of milk the company handles at the factory by over 120 million kg.

Nordmilch now process milk – mainly into butter and cheese – on three sites in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, which adjoins Poland. The area is considered to be packed with potential by a number of important European processors, including Arla Foods.

A further fan of this state is the Humana organisation, which has just announced a 45 million euro revamp of its facilities in Altentreptow – only 60 miles from the Nordmilch expansion in Waren.

The upgrade, which should be completed by 2005, is expected to increase cheese production at the site by as much as 15,000 tonnes to around 40,000 tonnes.