India to see production increase, says USDA FAS
Credit: Westock
The US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) in New Delhi is forecasting continuing growth in India’s production and consumption of fluid milk, butter, and non-fat dry milk (SMP) in 2025. India’s cow and water buffalo milk production is forecast to rise to 216.5 million metric tons (MMT) in 2025, from 211.7 MMT in 2024.
This is due to the increasing national trend for cows in milk, which is expected to reach 62 million head, a 0.8% increase from 2024. The trend is driven by the continued government support for the development of the national dairy sector, which higher fund allocations for the advancement of the dairy and livestock sector. The government offers both financial and technical assistance.
Additionally, the expectation of the increasing rise of milk prices, good weather, steady availability of fodder, improving milk yields, and the absence of a major disease outbreak, explain the growth in India’s milk production, according to the FAS.
The fluid milk supply growth has spurred greater production of both butter and skim milk powder (SMP) which are estimated to reach 7.2 MMT and 0.8MMT in 2025. The increase in butter production is also a result of the demand-side, from both domestic and international markets.
India’s growing population, accelerating disposable income, improved access via quick and e-commerce, increasing number of dairy brands, and extensive marketing are boosting consumption demand for milk and processed milk products. While the domestic consumption of fluid milk in 2025 is anticipated to experience a 2% growth from 2024 and reach 91 MMT, butter consumption is anticipated to grow 3% and reach 7.1 MMT. Post forecasts demand of fluid milk for factory consumption at 125.5 MMT, an uptick of 2% from 2024. The domestic consumption of SMP is also expected to grow, following the growing year-round consumption demand for milk and milk products. SMP consumption is forecast at 0.8 MMT for 2025.
While Indian milk and butter exports are expected to grow in 2025, SMP exports are expected to remain almost unchanged. Fluid milk exports should reach 0.03 MMT, driven by steady demand from Bhutan, Singapore, and United Arab Emirates. Butter exports should be 0.06 MMT in 2025, driven by high global prices and higher demand from Middle Eastern countries, the FAS notes.
