Global dairy trade continues to expand at about 2% per year. The EU remains the largest exporter, but its share is gradually declining as the US, Argentina and Uruguay strengthen their positions, according to Rabobank senior dairy specialist for Europe and Africa, Tom Booijink. Overall, global dairy trade grew by 11% between 2017 and 2025, up to 101.2 billion kg in the latter year. The EU remains the world’s biggest exporter, at 27.5 billion kg of LME in 2025, excluding intra-EU trade. New Zealand is still the largest single country exporter, with 22% of world trade, while the US has expanded from 11.3% in 2017 to 13.5% in 2025.

While China remains the largest importer, its declining purchases mean exporters are looking more towards the Middle Eastern, Southeast Asian and Brazilian markets.

Cheese stands out as the strongest growth engine, while milk powders are seeing less momentum. Butter surged in 2025 due to a sharp increase in US exports, while whey continues to add value as consumers seek protein-rich products. The US and Argentina are both best placed for driving future supply expansion, while Europe will face tighter production constraints.

In the Middle East, domestic dairy production capacity is limited, so the import market remains strong. Rapid population growth, ongoing urbanisation and growing incomes mean that places such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Oman are increasing reliance on imports. It also means the Strait of Hormuz conflict is adding another layer of risk to the global dairy flows.