US cheese investments to bear fruit in 2026, says Rabobank

As US milk production continues to expand, significant investments have been channelled into cheese and whey capacity, with production of those products expected to grow significantly through the end of 2026, according to a report from industry analysts RaboResearch. This additional supply is expected to eventually be absorbed by both growing domestic consumption and climbing demand from various export markets.

US per capita cheese consumption hit another record high in 2023, and it is likely that cheese exports had a record year in 2024. Protein consumption and health and wellness trends are pushing prices across the whey complex to record highs, with exports climbing as well. These trends justify the expanded processing capacity, but the growth could temporarily lead to an oversupplied market and reduce cheese prices in the near term as the market works to absorb the additional output.

In the longer term, these investments will mean the US will continue to grow market share in cheese and whey supplies to the growing global market. Consumer demand trends will remain positive in a continued success story for cheese and its value-added byproducts, Lucas Fuess, RaboResearch senior dairy analyst, observes.

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