India is now top producer and consumer globally
Gir cows feeding green grass in a dairy farm in India. This desi breed of cattle is gaining popularity in India due to demand in A2 milk . Group of Indian cows in farm. Selective focus.
India’s marketing year (MY) 2022 (January-December) fluid milk production is forecast higher at 203.5 million metric tons (MMT) based on a relatively normal June-September monsoon season, as reported by the US Agricultural Department’s Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS). The fluid milk production output should be 2% above the last year, according to USDA FAS. Anticipating strong prices and modest export demand, butter exports will rise to 15,000 metric tons (MT), 36% higher than the revised estimated export figure of 11,000 MT for MY 2021.
With the same assumptions, skimmed milk powder (SMP) exports are forecast to increase to 20,000 MT, 11% higher than the revised estimated figure for MY 2021. Butter and SMP estimated export figures have been revised to match with trade data. Since milk production is growing in tandem with domestic consumption, any uptick in future demand for milk-based products may lead to a general expansion in dairy imports.
Around 54% of milk production is marketed through milk cooperatives and/or unorganised players such as milkmen and contractors. India’s five largest milk-producing states, accounting for over half of the national production, include Uttar Pradesh (16%), Rajasthan (13%), Madhya Pradesh (9%), Andhra Pradesh (8%) and Gujarat (7%).
FAS New Delhi forecasts India’s fluid milk consumption in 2022 at 85 MMT, up by 2.5% from the USDA official MY 2021 figure of 83 MMT. Post attributes this increase to rising population numbers along with greater product affordability and availability in the retail and foodservice sectors. Indians are turning, in increasing numbers, to the consumption of milk in the pursuit of higher protein intake. India today is not only the global leading milk producer, but it has also become the largest consumer of milk.
Post forecasts India’s 2022 production at 700,000 MT, an increase of almost 3% above the USDA official 2021 figure of 680,000 MT. This increase is attributable to anticipated stronger prices and increased export demand. Increased demand for reconstituted milk and consistent exports of skimmed milk powder (SMP) are the major drivers supporting increased production. The SMP market is accustomed to the Indian procurement system, with its predictable remunerative cash flow. However, it is slowly developing a marketing network for high-value perishable goods. Post forecasts India’s 2022 butter production coming in at 6.5 MMT. The increase results largely from improving incomes that are leading to an uptick in domestic demand for butter.
FAS New Delhi forecasts India’s SMP consumption in 2022 at 694,000 MT, up by 2.5% from the earlier USDA official 2021 estimate figure of 680,000 MT. Similarly, butter is forecast at 6.4 MMT, up by approximately 3% from the MY 2021 estimate of 6.2 MMT. Post is revising its 2021 estimate figure to 6.289 MMT to better match up with the domestic market situation.