Asia fresh milk to increase over the next decade

Driven by increasing demand for whole fresh milk in Asia, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade, according to market researcher IndexBox in its report, Asia – Whole Fresh Milk – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights. According to FAO projections, Asian production is expected to increase by 2% in 2020 due to expected growth in India, Pakistan, and China, while Turkey may experience a decline.

After four years of growth, the Asian whole fresh milk market decreased by -2.1% to $309.6 billion in 2019. The market value increased at an average annual rate of +4% over the past decade. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2010 with an increase of 15% y-o-y. Over the period under review, the market attained the maximum level at $316.1 billion in 2018 and then dropped slightly in the following year.

India (198 million tonnes) remains the largest whole fresh milk consuming country in Asia, accounting for 54% of total volume. Moreover, whole fresh milk consumption in India exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, Pakistan (47 million tonnes), fourfold. The third position in this ranking was occupied by China (35 million tonnes), with a 9.6% share.

From 2009 to 2019, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in India totalled +5.4%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: Pakistan (+3.2% per year) and China (-1.2% per year).In value terms, India ($146.8 billion) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Pakistan ($37.3 billion), followed by China.

The countries with the highest levels of whole fresh milk per capita consumption in 2019 were Uzbekistan (339kg per person), Turkey (281kg per person), and Pakistan (231kg per person).

India, the world’s largest milk producer, is projected to increase production by 2.6%, or five million tonnes. The increase expected this year reflects the efforts of the vast network of rural co-operatives that have been mobilised to maintain milk collection despite the pandemic. Given the loss of sales in the foodservice industry due to the Covid-19 lockdown, large volumes of milk were sent for processing to drying plants, which were reported to operate at almost full capacity.

In China, where the sector has been recovering since 2018, it is projected that milk production will increase by almost 3% in 2020, amid ongoing consolidation of farms and increased efficiency of large dairy enterprises. The introduction of stringent food safety standards by the government has also increased consumer confidence in Chinese milk, which has helped support domestic production growth.

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